Manchester United's interim boss, Michael Carrick, has been a revelation since taking charge in January. The team's performance has been nothing short of impressive, with Carrick's side winning the most points in the Premier League during his tenure. But is this success sustainable? That's the question on everyone's mind as the club considers whether to make Carrick the permanent manager.
On the surface, Carrick's United look like a force to be reckoned with. They have the best goal difference in the league and are scoring more goals than any other team. However, a closer look reveals some potential red flags. While Carrick's side has been efficient in front of goal, converting a high number of chances into goals, this may not be a sustainable trend. Only six players have been more clinical in the Premier League since Carrick took over, and it's unlikely that this group will maintain their form indefinitely.
The team's overall performance has also raised some concerns. United have dominated games less than they did under their previous manager, Amorim, and have conceded slightly more goals. This is despite the fact that Carrick's United have taken two fewer shots per game. The key issue here is that United's success under Carrick is largely due to their 'hot' performance at both ends of the pitch, which may not be a long-term strategy.
History shows that teams that dominate their games, as measured by their xG (expected goals) difference, tend to have more success in the long run. In the last decade, teams with the best xG numbers have won titles, while those with the worst have been relegated. This trend has been evident this season, with teams like Aston Villa and Sunderland initially defying their xG numbers, but eventually falling in line as their results worsened over time.
Carrick's United may have improved significantly under his leadership, but their underlying numbers suggest that this success may not be sustainable. The team's ability to maintain their high-performing form will be crucial in determining whether Carrick gets the job permanently. The owners of Manchester United must consider whether Carrick has the potential to lead the club forward in the long term, rather than simply being swayed by the team's recent results.
