A Political Paradox: One Nation's Rising Popularity Meets Empty Coffers
February 18, 2026 — 7:30pm
Imagine a political party surging in the polls, its membership reportedly tripling, yet struggling to scrape together even a hundred dollars in donations. This is the perplexing reality facing Pauline Hanson's One Nation in Victoria, Australia. But here's where it gets controversial: despite this financial drought, the party is poised to potentially shake up the upcoming state election, challenging the dominance of the traditional two-party system.
One Nation's Victorian branch, which secured its first state MP in 2022, has seen a dramatic rise in support. Recent polls, like the Resolve Political Monitor for The Age, place them at a surprising 11% statewide support, with some polls even reaching into the 20s. This is a far cry from their 2022 election results, where they garnered a mere 0.22% of lower house votes and 2.04% in the upper house.
And this is the part most people miss: while their polling numbers are impressive, their financial situation is dire. In the last financial year, One Nation Victoria received a paltry $97.64 from just two donors. Even with a recent $1,269 donation from a former candidate, their war chest remains embarrassingly small. This financial constraint severely limits their ability to campaign effectively, especially since federal fundraising cannot be directly transferred to state campaigns.
The party pins its hopes on a High Court challenge to Victoria's donation rules, which could potentially ease their fundraising struggles. However, their strong polling suggests that money might not be the deciding factor in a media landscape fragmented by diverse voices. This is particularly noteworthy given Hanson's continued controversial statements against Muslim communities, which, while divisive, seem to resonate with a segment of the electorate.
One Nation's state president, Warren Pickering, claims a significant membership surge, possibly quadrupling in the past year, and the establishment of branches in 60% of Victorian federal electorates. They aim to field candidates in every seat in November, with about 10 already shortlisted. Their strategy focuses on securing the balance of power in the upper house, where they believe abolishing group voting tickets would benefit them. They also have their eyes on several lower house seats, despite skepticism from Coalition and Labor sources about their organizational capacity and history of controversial candidate selections.
Is One Nation a serious contender, or just a flash in the pan? The upcoming Nepean byelection in May will be a crucial test of their ability to translate polling numbers into actual votes. While they traditionally perform better in regional and outer suburban areas, Pickering claims their membership growth includes metropolitan Melbourne, signaling a potential shift in their demographic reach.
Experts offer mixed opinions. Former Nationals state director Matt Harris acknowledges One Nation as a threat, particularly in the upper house, while Redbridge pollster Kos Samaras believes they could be competitive in a few lower house seats and influence outcomes through preferences. However, their policy platform remains vague, focusing on federal talking points with limited state-specific offerings. Their proposed policies include law and order, energy affordability, and an 'Australians first' housing policy, which critics argue targets international students and visa holders unfairly.
The Labor government is attempting to paint the Coalition as aligned with One Nation, pressuring Opposition Leader Jess Wilson to distance herself from Hanson's views. Wilson, however, has remained noncommittal on preference deals, leaving the door open for potential alliances.
One Nation's rise presents a fascinating political conundrum. Can a party with such limited resources and controversial leadership truly challenge the established order? Will their populist message resonate with enough voters to overcome their financial constraints? The upcoming Victorian election promises to be a fascinating spectacle, with One Nation's performance serving as a barometer for the evolving political landscape in Australia. What do you think? Can One Nation overcome their financial hurdles and become a major player in Victorian politics? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
