Could the moon ever be blockaded? The idea of cislunar space being the next Strait of Hormuz is intriguing, and it's a topic that warrants serious consideration. The ongoing military tensions and the recent excitement around NASA's Artemis missions and plans for lunar habitation have brought this possibility to the forefront. As Marc Feldman, executive director of the Center for the Study of Space Crime, Piracy & Governance, points out, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz serves as a warning for our future endeavors in cislunar space.
The cislunar region, the area between the moon and Earth, is a critical strategic passage, much like the Strait of Hormuz. Feldman and Hugh Taylor, co-founders of the Center, argue that this region is essential for NASA's and Elon Musk's lunar ambitions, which are estimated to be worth a multi-trillion dollar space economy. However, if cislunar space falls into the wrong hands, these ambitious projects could be at risk.
The value of cislunar territory is a key factor in this discussion. Peter Garretson, a senior fellow in defense studies, explains that the valuation depends on whether we consider current or future value. While the current commercial value of the moon is minimal, the potential future value is immense, both in market and strategic terms. Garretson highlights the strategic importance of certain lunar locations, such as the poles, equator, and areas rich in useful minerals.
The implications of a blockade or interdiction in cislunar space are far-reaching. Garretson suggests that access to lunar resources and infrastructure could be threatened, impacting the global economy. He envisions a future where the moon plays a significant role in the economy, similar to the Gulf today, and an interruption in the supply chain could have devastating consequences. Data centers, for instance, could be launched from the moon, and any disruption to their operation could affect the entire economy.
The idea of a lunar blockade raises important questions about the future of space exploration and the potential for conflict. As we continue to push the boundaries of space exploration, it's crucial to consider the strategic implications and the potential for escalation. The cislunar region, with its unique geography and resources, could become a focal point for future tensions, much like the Strait of Hormuz. As experts and policymakers, it's our responsibility to anticipate and address these challenges to ensure a peaceful and sustainable future in space.
