A storm is brewing between Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogačar — and it could rewrite the script for Milan-San Remo 2026. The newly revealed cyclocross schedule of Van der Poel, the reigning king of cross-discipline dominance, may quietly shatter Pogačar's dream of finally conquering San Remo. But here's where it gets controversial: is Van der Poel's intense winter racing routine the secret weapon that gives him the edge — or could it burn him out before the spring classics even begin?
Updated November 29, 2025, 12:00 PM
The Dutch superstar's Alpecin-Deceuninck squad confirmed that Van der Poel is slated to ride up to 13 cyclocross races this winter, potentially kicking off at the Namur World Cup in two weeks. However, there’s still some uncertainty — his team hinted that he might instead begin a week later at the Antwerp World Cup. Another race, the Benidorm World Cup on January 18, is also pending confirmation. His season will round off with a huge climax: the Cyclocross World Championships in Hulst on February 1, where he aims for a historic eighth world title.
What Does This Mean for Pogačar?
A lot, actually.
In last March's Milan-San Remo, Van der Poel was the only rider able to match Pogačar on the Cipressa and Poggio climbs. Despite momentary gaps, he always clawed his way back and even launched a counterattack near the top of the Poggio. Then came the sprint finish: Van der Poel unleashed his explosive power, defeating the Slovenian champion while Filippo Ganna (Ineos Grenadiers) zipped past Pogačar to claim second.
The heart of Pogačar's problem lies in the nature of the route. San Remo is not mountainous enough for him to leverage his pure climbing strength. Unlike the demanding terrain of the Tour de France or Liège-Bastogne-Liège, the Italian classic forces him to rely on timing and form rather than brute endurance. That means he must arrive in absolute peak condition to shake off riders like Van der Poel on the Poggio.
But based on current plans, Van der Poel might be sharper than ever by March 21. Velo's analysis earlier this year showed he entered the 2025 race with 16 days of racing in his legs — split evenly between cyclocross and road events. Pogačar had just half that load. This time, the gap may widen drastically.
If Van der Poel completes all 13 cross events, then mixes in several early-season road races, he could start San Remo with more than 20 days of race intensity behind him. Pogačar, on the other hand, told journalist Ciro Scognamiglio (La Gazzetta dello Sport) that his first race will likely be Strade Bianche on March 7, two weeks later than his 2025 debut. That gives him very little time for fine-tuning against the world’s fastest riders.
Is that a tactical genius move — conserving energy for the long haul until Liège — or a dangerous miscalculation against a battle-hardened rival? Many think it’s the latter.
Inside Van der Poel’s Ruthless Winter Plan
According to Alpecin-Deceuninck’s social media post on Friday, the plan is simple but brutal:
“13 races with the World Championships as the big finale!”
The team did note it might reduce that total by two if fitness or logistics demand adjustments. The post added that Namur and Benidorm remain provisional, and Van der Poel will decide on Namur after testing his readiness by December 14. Benidorm participation depends on how his road preparations evolve.
Even if trimmed, his schedule will still exceed last year’s eight-race lineup. It includes eight UCI World Cup events, three X2O Trofee races, plus the Exact Cross in Mol on January 2, and of course, the World Championships in Hulst. That mixture means relentless intervals, mud-soaked duels, and short explosive efforts — the perfect base for the punchy, accelerated climbs of the Poggio.
And his rivals? Wout van Aert has yet to release his plans, but insiders expect him to ride a lighter campaign. That might leave Thibaut Nys – fresh off dominating the World Cup in Tábor – as Van der Poel’s top CX adversary this winter.
As for Pogačar, unless he dramatically reshuffles his own calendar, their first showdown won’t happen until March. Could that late-season start cost him crucial sharpness just when Van der Poel peaks?
Mathieu van der Poel’s Full Cyclocross Plan for 2025–2026
- December 14: UCI Cyclo-cross World Cup, Namur (TBC)
- December 20: UCI Cyclo-cross World Cup, Antwerp
- December 21: UCI Cyclo-cross World Cup, Koksijde
- December 22: X2O Trofee, Hofstade
- December 26: UCI Cyclo-cross World Cup, Gavere
- December 29: X2O Trofee, Loenhout
- January 1: X2O Trofee, Baal
- January 2: Exact Cross, Mol
- January 4: UCI Cyclo-cross World Cup, Zonhoven
- January 18: UCI Cyclo-cross World Cup, Benidorm (TBC)
- January 24: UCI Cyclo-cross World Cup, Maasmechelen
- January 25: UCI Cyclo-cross World Cup, Hoogerheide
- February 1: UCI Cyclo-cross World Championships, Hulst
The Big Picture
So, will Van der Poel’s relentless winter grind prove too much for even Pogačar’s brilliance? Or will the Slovenian’s fresher legs and laser-focused form finally tip the balance in his favor? It’s shaping up to be one of cycling's biggest early-season clashes — and maybe its most strategic.
What do you think? Is Pogačar’s minimalist approach a mistake waiting to happen, or could Van der Poel’s packed calendar backfire when it matters most? Share your take — this debate is only just getting started.
